Anyone who has been following the news since last year, knows that there’s one western country that stood alone from all others, with a unique COVID-19 approach. It faced intense media scrutiny and criticism since March 2020, but persisted in a more “hands off” strategy. No severe lockdowns, no mass business closures, no large scale school closures, and no widespread mask mandates. Sweden. To be clear, they didn’t do nothing at all and allow the virus to run rampant— there was public health advice to avoid large gatherings, maintain social distance where possible, and take extra care in healthcare facilities. But it was a much more relaxed approach than most other nations.
So as we hit the 18-month mark now, September 2021, what do the actual numbers tell us?
Currently according to the latest data, Sweden’s death rate per million population, stands at 1,444. This is well behind Hungary (3,075), Belgium (2,212), Italy (2,133), United Kingdom (1,975), and France (1,692). It is however ahead of Denmark (442), Ireland (1,035) and Germany (1,108). For comparison, the USA is around 1,937. Numbers overall though would suggest that Sweden saw a lower 2020 death spike than much of Europe (see this article showing that 21 out of 30 countries with available statistics had higher excess mortality than Sweden).
In terms of total cases (source: European Center for Disease Prevention and Control), Sweden with a population of just over 10 million, recorded 1.12 million total and 14,685 deaths. By comparison, France has had 6.75 million cases and 114,308 deaths (population 67 million) and Germany 3.94 million cases and 92,200 deaths (population 83 million).
Going by these types numbers, one would be hard pressed to say that Sweden has done any worse than many of the other large countries in Europe or even the USA, although some of its neighbors including Norway and Denmark have done better, albeit with much smaller populations.
Remember, our job when we look scientifically at data is to always take a step back and look at real numbers and patterns objectively. Could there be other confounding variables here, for a country that didn’t go all out with lockdowns or even mask mandates? Well, they are a relatively small country and don’t have the same number of tightly packed overcrowded cities. They are also a baseline healthier population than many nations including the USA and UK, with lower rates of many chronic diseases including obesity. Nevertheless, they have avoided many of the other negative aspects of COVID restrictions, including on mental health and their economy. As we know though with COVID, things can change quickly, and the next few months will tell us a lot.
A very distinguished specialist colleague of mine put this well recently when we were having a conversation recently about COVID strategies in different countries:
If you ever want to copy a country in almost anything, Sweden always appears to be near the top of any table. From education to healthcare, to social inequality— consistently among the best outcomes in the end.
That comment made me think, because it’s true that for the last few decades, Sweden has consistently got many things right. They may have again with their unique approach. And if so, they did it in the face of immense criticism and negativity.
Time will tell.
Suneel Dhand is a physician, writer, and YouTuber. He is Founder at MedStoic Lifestyle Medicine and DocsDox . Follow him on YouTube and Facebook.